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How to Predict Someone's Behavior (From How They Talk)

Learn how to predict someone's behavior by uncovering their self-narrative: the story they tell about themselves, revealed by a few research-backed questions.

You have known her for years: vacations together, constant texts, monthly game nights. Then one dinner you ask which fictional character she is most like, and the answer stops you mid-sip: a fierce survivor from a dystopian thriller. “Most people don’t know this,” she says quietly, “but I feel like I’m fighting to keep it together every single day.”

Years of friendship, and you never knew.

That is the strange thing about people. The behaviors that seem unpredictable from the outside almost always make perfect sense once you know the story someone is telling about themselves. Learn to hear that story, and you can predict a surprising amount about how a person will act.

Two friends in a relaxed, animated conversation on a sofa, one listening intently as the other talks expressively.

What Actually Drives Behavior?

If you want to predict what someone will do, look past their job title or their personality quiz result and find their self-narrative.

A self-narrative is the internal story a person tells about who they are: where they came from, what they have overcome and where they believe they are headed. Psychologists who study narrative identity have found that this inner story is no idle daydream.1 It shapes the choices people make and even their long-term well-being. People who frame their setbacks as stories of growth, for instance, tend to be more resilient and more satisfied with life.

Once you know someone’s story, their decisions stop looking random. Someone whose narrative is “I’m the one who overcomes the odds” will push through a setback that would stop someone else cold. Someone whose story is “I always get let down” may pull away the moment things get hard, even when they care deeply.

In her upcoming book Conversation (Portfolio/Penguin, October 2026), Vanessa Van Edwards calls self-narratives “North Stars.” Once you know someone’s, you know the direction they are heading. The question is how to uncover it. Two conversation questions do most of the work.

Question 1: “Who Do You Look Up To?”

A person’s hero is a portrait of who they secretly want to become.

Ask someone who they admire (a mentor, a role model, anyone they look up to) and you get a peek at their aspirational self. The magic lives in the follow-up.

Always ask why.

If someone says they admire a humanitarian, listen for whether they are drawn to the compassion or the courage. If they name a founder, notice whether it is the creativity or the empire that lights them up. The trait they point to is the value driving their own decisions.

Try this: Next time you want to understand someone, ask, “Who do you look up to in the way they live their life?” Then ask, “What is it about them?” The second question is where the real insight surfaces.

A quick word of caution from experience: when someone tells you what inspires them, believe them. If a new hire says they admire a creator known for “outrageous, attention-grabbing stunts,” do not be shocked when outrageous, attention-grabbing behavior shows up later. People tell you who they are. Listen the first time.

Question 2: “What Character Are You Most Like?”

This is the single most revealing question for uncovering a self-narrative, and it sounds like a party game.

Ask: “What book, movie or TV character are you most like, and why?”

Here is why it works so well. If you ask people to describe themselves directly (“So, what’s your self-narrative?”), they freeze. It is too abstract. But ask about a character, and you hand them a safe, creative outlet. People project their private struggles and secret strengths onto a fictional persona far more easily than they will admit them outright.

The magic, again, is in the why. If someone says “I’m Iron Man,” you still have no idea what they mean. Brilliant and inventive? Hiding behind armor? Just a fan of the wit? You only learn which when you ask the follow-up.

The name they choose tells you little. The reason they choose it tells you everything.

Pro Tip: If someone gives a surface-level answer (“I love Elle Woods because pink is my color”), do not push. A light answer is its own signal. It tells you they are not ready to go deep yet, and that is useful information too. You can gently invite more: “Oh, do you have a secret ambition to be a negotiator?” and see if they open the door.

More Questions That Reveal the Story

The two questions above do most of the work, but a few others slip past people’s defenses just as well. Keep them light and curious:

“What would the title of your memoir be?” People answer fast, and the title is a tidy summary of how they see their whole life. “A Work in Progress” is the common dodge, so gently nudge for something truer.

“Which [favorite show] character are you most like?” When a broad character question stalls, narrowing it to a world they love (which Harry Potter house, which Office character) gets a quick, revealing answer.

“Who do you wish you were more like?” Their answer points straight at the gap between who they are and who they want to become, which is rich ground for connection.

As always, the gold is in the follow-up. Ask why, then listen for the values underneath.

Listen for Narrative Hints in Everyday Talk

You will not always have the opening to ask a power question. People scatter clues to their self-narrative through ordinary conversation anyway, if you know what to listen for.

Vanessa calls these narrative hints: the small phrases that crack open someone’s deeper story. They tend to sound like:

“I’m the kind of person who…” (a direct identity statement)

“That’s just my luck.” (a hint at how they explain their setbacks)

“I always end up being the one who…” (a recurring role they cast themselves in)

When you catch one, do not let it float past. Reflect it back gently: “It sounds like you often end up being the responsible one. Has that always been your role?” That single follow-up can take a surface chat somewhere real.

Try this: In your next few conversations, listen for just one narrative hint. Once you start noticing them, you will hear them everywhere.

What to Do Once You Know

Predicting behavior is really about understanding people well enough to support them and navigate your relationship with them wisely.

Once you know someone’s story, honor it:

If a teammate sees themselves as the underestimated underdog, give them the chance to prove themselves rather than handing them everything.

If a friend’s narrative is “I take care of everyone,” watch for the moment they need someone to take care of them.

If a partner’s story is built on hard-won independence, frame your support as backup they can lean on rather than a rescue.

This is the deepest level of conversation: seeing people as they see themselves. (To get there, you first have to truly hear them; our guide on listening skills shows how.)

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you really predict someone's behavior from a conversation?

Not perfectly, but you can anticipate a surprising amount once you understand someone’s self-narrative, the story they tell about who they are. Research on narrative identity shows this inner story shapes people’s choices and how they handle setbacks. When you know someone frames themselves as a survivor, a helper or an underdog, their reactions become far more predictable.

What is the best question to understand someone quickly?

Ask, “What book, movie or TV character are you most like, and why?” It sounds like a casual icebreaker, but it gives people a safe way to reveal how they truly see themselves. The most important part is the follow-up “why”—the reason they identify with a character tells you far more than the character itself.

Why does asking about someone's role model work?

Because the person we admire is a portrait of who we aspire to be. When you ask who someone looks up to and then ask why, the specific trait they highlight (courage, creativity, loyalty, freedom) reveals the value driving their own decisions. Make it a back-and-forth conversation rather than an interview, and dig into the reasons.

Is predicting behavior the same as manipulating people?

No. Understanding someone’s self-narrative is about connecting with and supporting them more effectively, not controlling them. Once you know how a person sees themselves, you can honor that story: give an underdog the chance to prove themselves, or offer a caretaker the support they rarely ask for. It deepens relationships rather than exploiting them.

You Can Learn to Read the Story

When someone surprises you, get curious about the story underneath. Ask who they admire. Ask which character they feel most like. And whatever they say, follow it with the most powerful question of all: why?

Once you can hear the story someone tells about themselves, you will understand them on a level most people never reach, and you will rarely be caught off guard again.

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